rasmussen has him up two among likely voters. my theory is split the difference. it is somewhere close, romney has lost ground but not the kind of ground that we are hearing. most importantly the president is 50 percent approval and romney's favorables are going up. >>gregg: it is a national popular election. that brings me to the real clear politics electoral map. you have to win the states that have the big numbers attached. not election were held today, here is what you would have. obama at 265, five shy of what you have to get and romney at 191. i would say the polls and that electoral map is the best thing that could happen to romney. when it was a tie race, his natural instinct to play it safe overrode everything. now this is no doubt that he is behind, not fatally behind as pat and doug said, but he is behind the he has to change course. obviously, wednesday night is the last opportunity to change course. i think he started changing last week, took all of the ads off, put a new ad in, just himself, talking to the american people. >>gregg: let's lay the new